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Is the tech recession over or over-blown?

Today, Joel Spolsky, wrote in his blog:

"OK, it’s just one data point. All I know is sales of FogBugz and Copilot. But what I’m seeing is this: October-December 2008 were terrible—sales were 20% lower than usual—but starting January 5th, we saw a significant bounce back to the same level of sales as we had before this recession started, and it’s continued to this day." Source: "Is the tech recession over?

He goes on to highlight that technical job openings seem to be holding steady. 

Joel also posted a question on the Business of Software forum that received many responses noting similar things -- a) Q4 of 2008 was bad, and b) 2009 is rebounding nicely.

I also saw a statistic today that convinced me that the sky is not falling.  While the national unemployment rate is over seven percent, do you know what the unemployment rate for people with college degrees?  No? It is 3.8%.

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